It’s that time again—as 2025 comes to a close, it’s time to drop 2026 predictions. I think 2026 is going to surprise, both to the upside and to the downside. Organized by category: Macro / Chains $BTC is > $150K by year-end, but BTC dominance decreases in 2026. Despite the excitement around the recent crop of fintech chains, their metrics will underwhelm. Daily active addresses, stablecoin flows, and RWAs—Tempo, Arc,...
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I used to tell founders, the reaction you are going to get to your launch is not hate, it’s indifference. By default, nobody cares about your new chain. I have to stop telling them that now. Monad just launched this week, and I’ve never seen so much hate about a blockchain that just launched. I’ve been investing into crypto professionally for 7+ years now. Before 2023, almost every chain I’ve...
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Get better at speaking. Do embarrassing stuff like record yourself, Toastmasters, study good speakers and try to emulate them to try out their verbal techniques and see how they fit you. Charisma is the omni-skill. Drink less, or not at all. It will force you to become a better conversationalist. Buy art that your friends make and hang it on your walls. Never lend money to family or close friends....
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Here’s what I would do if I was a young person trying to break into VC: Write. Short writeups, on Twitter. Not generic market philosophical thinkpieces, because those will be assumed to be AI slop or regurgitated research. No one will read it unless you’re brilliant, which you’re probably not. Original research, on a specific company or sub-sector. If you want to write about robotics, even that is too broad....
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I started shaving my head in my early 20s. I was way too young to be balding that early, and it terrified me. So I decided, fuck it, just go all the way to the finish line. The first time I shaved my head, I thought I looked like a ghoul. In my dreams, I still had hair. It didn’t feel like the real me. It was really distressing. But...
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I passed on @solana’s seed round in early 2018 at $0.04. At current prices, that’s a 3,250x. Solana was one of my first ever pitches as a junior VC, and back then I wrote memos for every deal I passed on (adorably naive and overconfident). Re-reading this memo now is peak junior VC cringe. At the time we were obsessed with “Ethereum killers,” consensus protocols, and what was going to...
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